With less than six weeks until the general election, former President Donald Trump holds an edge over Vice President Kamala Harris in the key battleground state of Arizona, according to an exclusive new USA TODAY/Suffolk University poll.

Trump leads Harris by 6 points, 48% to 42%, the statewide poll of 500 likely voters found. The poll is considered within the 4.4% margin of error – meaning the race is still tight because the margin can move in either direction by those points for the two candidates. The poll was conducted between Sept. 21 and 24.

In bellwether Maricopa County, the largest county in the state, which also typically indicates how the state will go, Trump holds a smaller lead over Harris, 47% to 43%, according to a separate poll conducted by the same team over the same period. That figure is within the 5.7% margin of error for that poll, which surveyed an additional 300 likely voters in Maricopa County.

Slightly less than half – 47% – of Latino voters in Arizona said they support Harris, the statewide poll found. Trump has the support of 35% of Latinos in the state. Arizona has about 1.3 million eligible Latino voters, roughly a quarter of the state’s registered voters.

With 11 electoral votes, Arizona is a key battleground state on the pathway to the 270 electoral votes needed to win the White House. Harris and Trump are vying hard for the state, with the Vice President traveling to Douglas, Az., on Friday. Earlier this month, Trump held a rally in Tucson. Both campaigns have also had top surrogates visit the state recently.

Trump’s lead spells trouble for Harris, who initially saw a bump in polling in the state after she replaced President Joe Biden at the top of the ticket. Biden flipped the state in 2020, winning by fewer than 11,000 votes. Trump in 2016 carried the state. Still, the poll found that 5% of those polled haven’t yet made up their minds.

Ana Keck, who voted for Biden in 2020, said she will be casting her ballot for Trump this time around because she believes Democrats have mishandled the economy and foreign policy, such as Russia’s war with Ukraine.

“I just don’t think that they’ve come up with the change that they said that they were going to come up with,” Keck, 39, of Scottsdale said of Democrats.

But for Jordan Waddell, 30, the protections of women, like abortion access, as well as LGBTQ+ rights, and fears of project 2025 are why she will be supporting Harris.

“We all really need a president who is not focused on hate,” said Waddell, who lives in Avondale. “Donald Trump, he doesn’t understand any of that. And he’s not focused on making America better for the lowest people.”